Free College Football Picks & Predictions - Today's Best NCAAF Bets (2024)

Pick - Prop

Focus on the BYU defense. It was gashed in Big 12 play last season, and now it has tried to construct a DL with junior college transfers. That is not a winning approach. Against a defense returning half its secondary, the better move may be to wear on that front-seven. That reality will discourage SMU from throwing too often. Bailey did not catch a pass in the season opener against Nevada, and grabbing four for 59 yards last week was buoyed by a 28-yard reception. To clear this prop, he likely needs to catch four passes again, at the least. And there is little guarantee the Mustangs drop back often enough that any downfield target will see four passes their way.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 22 hrs, 40 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Smith was brought in expecting to be the speed addition to the Mustangs backfield. He has been, taking nine carries for 108 yards last week. But more notably, SMU ran the ball 53 times for 370 yards last week against Houston Christian, a 7.0 yards per carry average, while throwing it just 23 times. Instinct might worry that was because of the opponent. The lopsided nature of it may have been. But also, SMU has struggled throwing the ball through two games. Preston Stone has not looked fully himself after breaking his leg to end last season, leading to more time for dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings, leading to a more rush-focused offense.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 22 hrs, 43 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

Northwestern returns all four starters from a DL that was decent against the run last season. Turning Duke into a one-dimensional offense will be costly in Northwestern’s temporary stadium, Martin Stadium, literally within punting distance of Lake Michigan. Throwing here is difficult. Friday night’s weather will make that life even more difficult. Winds approaching 20 miles per hour and some showers in the evening may become the Martin Stadium default. That will favor whoever is better at stopping the run. Northwestern is better at that, further benefited from how bad Duke is running the ball.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 1 day, 19 hrs, 55 min ago.

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Pick - Total

Northwestern has given us a little gift in the form of its temporary stadium. While Ryan Field gets remodeled for the next two seasons, the Wildcats will call picturesque Martin Stadium their home. It sits right on the shore of Lake Michigan and with the wind coming off the water and with Northwestern boasting a solid defense there could be plenty of Unders here this season. Game 1 against Miami (Ohio) saw just 19 total points. On top of that, Duke’s first game under new head coach Manny Diaz saw the Blue Devils put up just 26 points in a game where they were 24.5-point favorites against Elon.

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Andrew Caley - Pick Made 2 days, 0 hrs, 26 min ago.

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Pick - Team Total

On nine genuine possessions, Michigan scored 16 points. It put together 4 quality drives on those possessions. Michigan has a problem, one worsened by an apparent misunderstanding of its QB situation. Building an offense for Alex Orji’s skill set meant focusing on the run. Building one for Davis Warren calls for threatening receivers, something the Wolverines didn’t seek out this offseason because they were readying for Orji at QB. Averaging 4.7 yards per pass attempt is a worry against any opponent, let alone against Fresno St. Thus, Michigan failed to string together quality possessions and failed even more at finishing them.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 1 day, 11 hrs, 38 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

The Oklahoma State Cowboys defense was a cause for concern in Week 1. This unit allowed all kinds of explosive plays last season and was doing it again against a non-FBS opponent in South Dakota State. The Cowboys gave up the most plays of 20 yards or more, 30 yards or more, 40 yards or more, and 50 yards or more in the Big 12 last year.Of particular concern for OSU is the Arkansas passing game. There were big shoes to fill after KJ Jefferson hit the portal in the offseason, and Boise State QB transfer Taylen Green looked the part, albeit against poor competition last weekend. He threw for two touchdowns in the opener and ran for another two in what was part of his 88 yards on the ground. That mobility factor is key here.

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Chris Hatfield - Pick Made 3 hrs, 24 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

Michigan’s offense has a finishing drives problem. That may sound rash when describing the defending champions that went 15-0 last season and have now played only one game this year, but they turned nine possessions starting from kickoffs or punts into just four quality drives, and three of those then devolved into field goals against Fresno State. Texas’s defense will be more stout, and more stout could mean dominant as the Wolverines look ineffective where it matters most. Against Texas’s explosive offense, just one red-zone stumble should be enough to leave Michigan trailing by a full touchdown.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 days, 9 hrs, 52 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

ND has a potent running game. That is what won the Week 1 tilt at Texas A&M, four explosive runs defining that 23-13 victory. The Huskies may return the bulk of their defense and have plenty of experience, but there was a reason opponents ran on them frequently last season. Foes ran against Northern Illinois 8.7% more often than expected last regular season, the second-highest number in the country, because the Huskies were not strong against the run. So the Irish should enjoy that success, and that is only when QB Riley Leonard does not try to build some chemistry with his receivers, something lacking last week. Connect on a few of those and the ND may blow open this game early.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 1 day, 10 hrs, 46 min ago.

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Pick - Total

There may not be a more improved unit in the country than theUtah Uteson offense. Andy Ludwig’s squad averaged just 23.2 points per game a year ago while ranking 105th in EPA per play, painfully reeling the loss of quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe due to injury. It was blatantly obvious that the offense was in for better days when Rising threw for 254 yards and five touchdowns on just 15 attempts against Southern Utah last weekend, while Kuithe corralled four passes for 69 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears were moving and grooving offensively in Week 1, racking up 45 points on 443 total yards and 6.2 yards per play against Tarleton State. Utah clearly presents a more difficult challenge, but I think there's a case to be made that the Utes are overrated defensively after finishing 119th in explosiveness a year ago and losing two First-Team All-Pac-12 selections in the secondary.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 1 day, 17 hrs, 44 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

The injury bug has already bitten California — the Bears were without four starters and a rotational receiver in the opener as wideoutsTobias Merriweather, Kyion Grayes, and Cole Boscia missed the contest along with offensive linemen Siope Vatikani and Will McDonald. This bodes poorly for the Golden Bears, who looked shaky early in Week 1. Now, they travel to face a vastly superior opponent in Auburn, and the Tigers should win with relative ease.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 1 day, 2 hrs, 37 min ago.

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Pick - Total

Charlotte fatigue showed up in getting outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter last week. It was outgained 244 yards to 117 in the second half before a three-play drive to run out the clock, 8.4 yards per play to 3.4 yards per play. Charlotte was expected to lose, but that second half was an exercise in ignominy. North Carolina is now looking forward to that Charlotte fatigue after QB Max Johnson broke his leg last week. Once Johnson went out, UNC brought in junior Conner Harrell and bound the offense to the ground. The combo of the new-look UNC offense and Charlotte’s inevitable fatigue makes any total north of 45 rather dubious.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 19 hrs, 26 min ago.

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Pick - Total

If this thought backfires, it will be because Utah is too good, particularly against what could be a flailing Baylor team. However, Toledo transfer QB Dequan Finn may have inspired enough confidence in Baylor’s offense to quell that worry, accounting for 3 total TDs last week. The crux of this Over thought stems from believing Utah’s offense remains undervalued in the market. Beating Southern Utah 49-0 with 5 TDs from QB Cam Rising was never going to give the Utes enough credit, but the return of Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe has revived Utah’s offense, even if advanced numbers look at last year’s struggles without those two and still give them some weight.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 days, 9 hrs, 51 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

Illinois is replacing its entire DL. It returns three starting LBs among the front-seven, but that first-level worry will be an issue against Kansas star QB Jalon Daniels. As long as he is healthy, any suspect defensive front-seven on the Jayhawks’ schedule will be exploited. Illinois’s defense is better than average, but terrible by Big Ten standards. The Jayhawks’ OL will have a clear advantage, and anytime that is the case with Daniels still healthy, Kansas as a one-possession favorite will make sense.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 19 hrs, 33 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

As a true freshman, the precocious ball carrier burst onto the scene with 95 carries for 438 yards. He’s the lead back this year and will be the focal point of the offense. That was clear in Week 1 when he racked up 108 rushing yards and a score on 16 carries.Kansas ranked 102nd in EPA per rush and 101st in rushing success rate, and the defensive front was already a weakness (105th in front-seven havoc, 125th in stuff rate).

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 2 hrs, 51 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

Missouri exceeded expectations on Saturday despite facing FCS-level Murray State. With former coordinator Blake Baker now at LSU and only five returning defensive starters, sportsbooks outright expected Missouri to yield some points to the Racers. Instead, the Tigers pitched a shutout, giving up 85 yards on 50 plays. If Missouri has a 2024 weakness, it is its secondary, but Buffalo has one of the 25 worst passing attacks in the country. To make matters worse for the Bulls, their pass defense should be in the bottom-40, susceptible to Mizzou QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 days, 9 hrs, 51 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

North Dakota St. took 41 rushes for 168 yards. The sheer volume of rushes stood out, 41 compared to just 28 dropbacks (sacks adjusted). The Bison knew they had an advantage in the trenches, and they leaned on it a few yards at a time. Advanced metrics paint an even more dire picture for the Buffaloes. Those numbers still lean heavily on 2023, obviously, but Colorado ranks No. 119 in defensive success rate against the rush. Nebraska junior running back Emmett Johnson had eight carries for 71 yards last week against UTEP, and the Huskers should turn to the run to salt away a second-half lead since the Buffaloes simply cannot stop the run.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 1 hrs, 56 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

UNLV had 10 genuine possessions last week at Houston, turning half into quality drives, one ending in a turnover on downs inside the 20 and two others yielding FGAs, missing one. UNLV left points on the board, a surprise in the moment only in that Houston’s D was so not up to the overall task. Oklahoma will not leave those points on the board, and its defense need not be doubted. Brent Venables returns six starters and 11 of his top-13 tacklers, led by LB Danny Stutsman. Oklahoma knows Houston wants to run the ball. Houston’s offense will be inept this season. That was expected. Its defense lacking fangs is a development, one that burgeons belief in Oklahoma up to four touchdowns.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 19 hrs, 29 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

Despite only scoring 24 points, Oregon had 380 yards passing from quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The Heisman favorite was also 41-for-49 passing to showcase incredible accuracy. The problem for the Ducks was an inability to finish drives, as they had a fumble, a missed field goal, and two turnovers on downs. The defense allowed two touchdowns, but one was on a short field due to a failed fourth down conversion by the offense. If the offense had finished their drives with even just a few touchdowns, this would have been a blowout with a fantastic defensive performance. This spread was 24.5 before Week 1 and we are getting a discount because Oregon struggled in their opener.

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Jeremy Jones - Pick Made 1 hrs, 26 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

This is a revenge spot for Texas Tech WR1Josh Kelly, who racked up 923 yards and eight scores receiving at Pullman a year ago. He looked like the clear top option in the passing game in Week 1, taking 13 targets for 10 catches, 156 yards, and a touchdown. Washington State’s defense didn’t look formidable in the opener, allowing 449 yards on 5.4 yards per play to Portland State. Kelly will have every opportunity for a big game on Saturday and I’m betting on him reaching 70+ yards against his old team.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 2 hrs, 48 min ago.

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Pick - Moneyline

Opening the week with San Diego State +4.5 was probably the correct number, based on advanced metrics. But those metrics are all terribly flawed in this instance, with Oregon State returning three total starters while San Diego State has just one defensive returner. Logic could then easily argue for the Over 54, but this moneyline brings even more value. And anytime considering an Over in a game with Sean Lewis on the sideline, the variance should veer to the coach who prefers to mainline up-tempo spread offenses. The Beavers are about to attempt to out-crazy a man who paints his face while hanging upside down looking at a broken mirror.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 19 hrs, 24 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

The Sun Devils' WR1 this year should beJordyn Tyson, who led the team with eight targets in Week 1. No other player had more than three, and the vacancy is there for the speedster to be the alpha of the group. He had a healthy 2.23 yards per route run in the opener and was frequently targeted downfield with a 15.4 aDOT.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 2 hrs, 53 min ago.

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Pick - Spread

The Aggies were hit hard in the portal, losing two quarterbacks who started a game a year ago and three of their best defensive returners after spring. After Iowa transfer Spencer Petras got injured in the opener and was seen in a walking boot, the team will essentially be down to its fourth-string quarterback in Utah transfer and pig-farmer extraordinaire Bryson Barnes (12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions a year ago). Running back Robert Briggs Jr. fractured his left leg in the opener after a 55-yard-run. Miller Moss and this USC offense should be able to get whatever it wants against a Utah State defense that ranked 106th in success rate a year ago. On the flip side, Utah State has a mistake-prone quarterback and allowed 44 sacks a year ago.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 2 hrs, 11 min ago.

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